Vibha Sharma
New Delhi, September 30
The June-September Southwest Monsoon season in India on Friday ended with “above-normal” rainfall in the season. Quantitatively, the rainfall during the season was 925 mm, 6.49 mm above the long period average (LPA), IMD Director General M Mohapatra said.
The 106. 49 per cent departure from the LPA was more than what IMD anticipated in the beginning of the season—normal rain in the range of 96-104 per cent of the LPA.
Rain in these four months remained normal to above normal in most parts, Northwest at 101 per cent, Central India at 119 per cent and South Peninsula at 122 per cent. As many as 12 sub-divisions covering 40 per cent area in the country recorded excess rains and 8 sub-divisions and 43 per cent landmass normal rain.
However, six subdivisions covering 17 per cent area recorded deficient rain in the four-month season that ended today. Despite a good start in June when it received 22 percent above-normal rain, East and Northeast India slipped, resulting in an 18 per cent deficit. Six driest states, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Manipur, Mizoram and Nagaland, accounted for the majority of the deficiency.
Mohapatra said that except for the two low-pressure systems formed in September, remaining systems did not bring rainfall over UP as they followed a west-north-westwards track, resulting in Indo-Gangetic plains consistently reporting below-normal rain.
It was only around the second half of September (between 15 to 25) that UP recovered and so did many parts of the Northwest. Delhi until September 20 faced a larger rain deficit. However, the spell of heavy rain from September 21 to September 24 due to an interaction between a cyclonic circulation and a low-pressure system covered the margin to a large extent. Overall, the country recorded higher low-pressure days in September.
Meanwhile, a cyclonic circulation expected over the Bay of Bengal around the weekend is likely to move westwards leading to rain over Odisha, Jharkhand, UP and Madhya Pradesh from October 4 onwards. The system may also bring rain to Uttar Pradesh and parts in Haryana touching it.
The system will stall the monsoon withdrawal from parts of central India.
The normal date for monsoon withdrawal from the country is October 15.
In October, normal to above normal rainfall is likely over most parts of India except small pockets of the southernmost region and northern most part of the country, the IMD DG said.
Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole during October 2022 is most likely to be above normal (gt;115 % of LPA).
During October, normal to below normal day temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except many parts of Northeast and Northwest India where above normal maximum temperatures are likely.
So far as night temperatures are concerned, normal to above normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except some parts of Northwest, and southern parts of Peninsular India where below normal minimum temperatures can be expected.